Own the broadening, not the crowded leader.
The AI earnings are real, but positioning is the risk. A record 82% of managers were crowded long semis with cash at 3.6%, the lowest since February and under the 4% that triggers BofA's sell signal, and the trade broke within a week. Overweight instead what the data says is broadening, plus the two cheapest sectors, with energy doubling as a hedge against an unresolved Hormuz.
| Instrument | Qty | Open | Last | Cur | P/L DKK | % | Value DKK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amundi Prime All Country World Acc UCITS ETF | 358.00 | 12.75 | 12.89 | EUR | 396 | +1.2% | 34,421 |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF | 140.00 | 9.01 | 8.96 | EUR | -51 | -0.5% | 9,358 |
| Equinor ASA | 26.00 | 362.20 | 419.00 | NOK | 1,019 | +15.7% | 7,518 |
| Danske Bank A/S | 17.00 | 362.90 | 375.40 | DKK | 212 | +3.4% | 6,382 |
| BNP Paribas SA | 8.00 | 104.22 | 100.74 | EUR | -208 | -3.3% | 6,010 |
| Total | 1,369 | 63,689 | |||||
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC decision First read on Warsh's guidance; rate itself expected unchanged. |
| 2026-09-15 | FOMC + fresh dot plot Most important policy event in the window. |
| 2026-09-29 | 100% US tariff on patented pharmaceuticals Why Novo was sold. Watch European pharma. |
| 2026-09-30 | US government funding deadline Shutdown risk weeks before the election. |
| 2026-11-03 | US midterms Split government is historically the most equity-favourable outcome. |
| 2026-11-09 | US affiliates-rule suspension and China Nexperia counter-restrictions both expire Next genuine policy inflection. Zero Entity List actions all year, so the truce has held until now. |
| 2026-12-31 | Experiment ends Judged against ACWI, the old portfolio, and OMXC25, net of costs. |
| When | Kind | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10T14:55 | review | Weeks 5-7 catch-up review (due 26.08, 02.09, 09.09; run 10.09): NO TRADE. No falsifier fired at any of the four dates, largest sleeve drift +1.77pp of a 5pp trigger. |
| 2026-08-19T12:15 | review | Week 4 review: NO TRADE. No falsifier fired and every one moved AWAY. energy moved furthest: the US-Iran MoU EXPIRED 17.08 with no deal and Brent is $91.52, so the tail risk the sleeve hedges is live - and it was deliberately not added to, because rule 2 says confirming evidence is not a reason to trade. Largest sleeve drift +1.05pp of a 5pp trigger. First down week: -0.89% against ACWI -1.08% and the old portfolio -2.64%. |
| 2026-08-12T15:33 | trade | ai-underweight response EXECUTED: sold 5 Chevron at 196.69 USD (15:20:57Z), bought 68 WEBN at 13.008 EUR (15:22:09Z). Cost 62.79 DKK, 0.097% of the account, inside the 60-75 DKK pre-committed estimate. Energy now 10% (Equinor alone), global core 54.2%. |
| 2026-08-12T09:19 | review | Week 3 review: ai-underweight FIRED - holds test passed 5 of 5 (SOX closes 05-11.08 all above 11,674, week low 11,707.78). Pre-committed response recommended to owner: sell 5 CVX in full (~6,354 DKK) into WEBN (~64 shares). No other falsifier fired; energy moved away (Brent +12.9% on the stalled deal); sleeve drift max 0.68pp. |
| 2026-08-05T09:42 | review | Week 2 review: no trade. ai-underweight is ARMED - every clause of it carrying a number has fired, and it resolves 12.08.2026 on a 'holds' test defined before the US open. |
| 2026-07-29T13:34 | review | Week 1 review: no trade. No falsifier fired, no sleeve drifted past 1.6pp of a 5pp trigger. |
| 2026-07-21T13:43 | trade | Transition complete: all 6 target positions held, fully invested. |
| 2026-07-21T13:36 | trade | Transition placed: sold all 8 original holdings, bought the 6-position target. |